A recent IZA discussion paper by Zohal Hessami and Temurbek Khasanboev examines how crises exacerbate gender biases in the reelection of incumbent politicians. Using data from local council elections in the German state of Hesse in March 2021, the researchers reveal the disproportionate electoral penalties faced by female politicians during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Female incumbents penalized twice as harshly at the ballot box
Despite having no direct role in pandemic management, local councilors experienced shifts in voter behavior tied to COVID-19 outcomes. The study found that reelection probabilities for incumbents decreased in municipalities with higher mortality rates. Critically, female incumbents were penalized almost twice as harshly as male incumbents. At the average mortality rate of one death per 1,000 inhabitants, an additional death reduced reelection probabilities by 4.3 percentage points for male incumbents and by 7.8 points for female incumbents.
The gender blame attribution gap
This disparity highlights a “gender blame attribution gap,” where voters disproportionately hold female politicians accountable during crises, irrespective of their actual involvement or performance. The study rigorously tested this hypothesis across various candidate, party, and municipal characteristics, confirming the robustness of these findings. Notably, this bias exacerbates gender underrepresentation in local councils, with simulations predicting a persistent 3–4 percentage point gap in female representation for at least a decade.
Long-term impacts on political representation
The study emphasizes the implications of this gendered electoral bias for policy outcomes. In smaller councils, even one fewer female member can influence decisions on public goods such as childcare provision. This underscores the broader societal costs of gender-biased electoral dynamics during crises.
This research not only contributes to understanding the barriers to gender equality in politics but also provides actionable insights for policymakers aiming to foster equitable political representation. The findings call for awareness and structural changes to mitigate crisis-induced biases in voter behavior.